Showing posts with label shares. Show all posts
Showing posts with label shares. Show all posts

Sunday, 26 March 2017

Investment Diaries


Investing, Buffett style


In 2013, he called the airlines industry a “death trap for investors”. Over the last few months, he has invested nearly $10 billion in United Airlines, American, Delta and Southwest.  He said that he did not understand tech companies. During the second half of 2016, he purchased close to $7 billion of Apple shares. 

Welcome to the world of Warren Buffett!


With a personal net worth of an estimated $77 billion, Warren Buffett is among the top three richest people in the world and undoubtedly one of the most successful investors. He manages Berkshire Hathaway’s $604 billion balance sheet with his colleague, Charles Munger. Today, Berkshire Hathaway generates over $30 billion annually in operating cash flows. So in the few minutes that you’ve been reading this, a quarter of a million has been come in to his accounts.


When one thinks of big names associated with Investment Banking, it is usually firms like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America that come to mind. Under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) of the United States, that was signed in 2008 to address the sub-prime mortgage crisis, Goldman received $10 billion, JPMorgan $25 billion, Bank of America $336.1 billion and Citibank $476.2 billion as funding and guarantees from the U.S. Treasury.  Buffett lent a $5 billion-emergency loan to Goldman at this time. The bailouts helped these firms survive the crisis after committing very risky and “junk” investments in derivatives in the hope of making billions.

And while Wall Street was in crisis…..

Berkshire Hathaway averaged 19 percent annual growth in book value since 1965 (compared to 9.7 percent of the S&P 500 for the same period), employing large capital and minimal debt. So if you invested $1000 in Berkshire Hathaway in 1964, when Buffett acquired shares for a princely sum of $19 per share, today, it would be worth $12.6 million. (March 24 closing price: $2,52,301)

The Investment Rationale


                                                                           Courtesy: Bloomberg
                                                                                 Source: YouTube 


47 years after he took over as Chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett continues to make headlines. What is the reason for his success? A simple answer would be that Buffett bought the stock of companies with good fundamentals with a long term objective at low prices, while firms were “hot for bullish stocks.”

We started with Buffett’s investments in the Airlines industry and Apple: two investments yet to be understood. While Apple is one of the strongest brands and richest companies in the world, its shares seem undervalued by the market. The U.S. Airlines Industry after years of losses and rounds of restructuring and mergers, through four companies namely American, Delta, Southwest and United control 80 percent of domestic flights in the country. Over the last four years, low fuel costs and less competition have led to large profits. So it appears that Buffett generally likes to invest in companies when it appears that the shares are quoted below the underlying intrinsic value. Buffett avoids investing in dynamic sectors such as technology where he is unsure of a company or its stock having a competitive yet sustainable advantage among others.

So with a bank account balance like Buffett’s, you would definitely have a few excesses. But Buffett or the “Oracle of Omaha” as he is called, is a man with simple tastes. He continues to live in the same house he bought in 1958. He continues to drive his own car and does not have a driver or security around him. And in this digital world, as you’re reading this on your mobile or computer, it is fascinating to know, that he does not carry a cell phone around.

Quote-Unquote 


Courtesy: Value Investing Singapore


"Never invest in a business you cannot understand." 

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." 

"Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years."

"It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price."

"Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."


Happy Investing!

Tuesday, 7 March 2017

Snap IPO: Popular and Profitable?


The Billion-Dollar Snapchat Story



Courtesy: Snapchat.com

 

The big event last week for Wall Street was the Snapchat Initial Public Offering (IPO). By selling 200 million shares for $17 each and raising $3.4 billion with a valuation of around $20 billion, everything seems to be going great for Snap Inc., the parent company of Snapchat. Based in Los Angeles, California, Snapchat is the first technology company that has gone public in the United States in 2017.


It is interesting to note that the IPO has been oversubscribed 10 times though its shares are non-voting shares. It is the biggest social-media listing since Twitter Inc. in November 2013. The stock started trading Thursday, March 2 on the New York Stock Exchange and closed at above $24.


While Snapchat was still gaining traction among users in 2012-13, the markets and investors eagerly anticipated IPOs of two of the most popular social networks, Facebook and Twitter.

Facebook


When Facebook launched its IPO in May 2012, it was the second largest IPO for any American company at that time. It traded lower than its first-day close for more than a year, at times falling to less than half the IPO price. Facebook finally recovered in late 2013, more than tripled and today has become one of the most valuable tech companies in the U.S. 

Twitter


If we look at Twitter’s IPO in November, 2013, after selling shares at $26, the price soared by 73 percent in the first trading session. Twitter shares stayed higher than the IPO price for nearly two years before concerns about its user growth became an issue for investors. Twitter is now trading below $16 and some analysts think it is probably worth $10.

Is Snapchat going to be both popular and profitable?


Investors are of all kinds; some choose to invest just for the IPO listing gains, while others buy after the whole IPO frenzy is over. While there is nothing wrong in the investment strategy of the former, if a large number of investors have the same plan, the stock prices could eventually fall. The latter is concerned about issues of performance, non-voting, among other parameters and sells shares unless the results are satisfactory. This will again bring down valuation.

Herd behaviour, the tendency of an individual to follow the rational, or often irrational decisions of a larger group, is not something the stock markets are unfamiliar with. So when I read about the anticipation surrounding these IPOs, I wonder, how much of it has to do with this inherent bias?

There was a lot of talk going around last month about the Snapchat IPO owing to its large following, with 158 million people using Snapchat every day. With all the press coverage and information available, people start making the judgment that it is more important than it really is (also referred to as the Availability Heuristic).

Snapchat faces a giant competitor (in terms of user base and popularity) in the Facebook/WhatsApp/Instagram combination and it will be interesting to see whether Snapchat will be more like Facebook or Twitter in the future.

Update: When I checked last, Snapchat closed on March 6 just below its Day 1 close, at $23.77.